Scenerio Planning

2.

Which of the following statements is true?

A) Scenarios are forecasts of the future

B) Subjective probabilities should be assigned to each of the constructed scenarios

C) Scenarios are pen-pictures of plausible futures

D) Scenarios always involve portraying extreme worlds

4.

Which of the following statements is true?

A) Scenarios incorporate the internal environment

B) Scenarios always portray global events

C) Scenarios are best guesses about the future

D) Scenarios contain elements over which the decision maker has no control

5.

The scenario structuring space contains:

A) Only the major uncertainties

B) Only the major pre-determined elements

C) A mixture of high/low predictability events that have high/low impact

D) Only elements from the internal environment

6.

A business idea is:

A) Part of all the constructed scenarios

B) A part of a single scenario

C) Evaluated against the scenarios at a final stage

D) A "wind tunnel"

7.

“Wind tunneling” is:

A) A process for creating extreme scenarios

B) A process for developing turbulent scenarios

C) A process where the business idea is tested against each of the scenarios in turn

D) A process where each scenario is adapted to incorporate the business idea

8.

Typical outcomes of the scenario planning process include:

A) Identifying the most probable future

B) Forecasting the four most likely futures

C) Defensive avoidance of the future

D) Sensitivity to the early warning elements that are precursors of desirable and unfavorable futures

9.

When strategies are evaluated against scenarios using a multi-attribute value approach:

A) The alternative strategies are not considered until the scenarios have been formulated and the objectives determined

B) The alternative strategies are considered before the objectives have been determined but after the scenarios have been formulated

C) The process is exactly the same as the SMART approach

D) Sensitivity analysis precedes an evaluation of the robustness of a strategy’s performance over the range of scenarios

10.

When strategies are evaluated against scenarios using a multi-attribute value approach:

A) The process will always identify a strategy that is robust against the range of futures captured in the scenarios

B) The process will always identify one strategy with the highest subjective expected value

C) The process will sometimes identify strategies that are dominated by other strategies

D) The process does not entail the use of swing weights

Answers

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